Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a battle for voters concerned about crime as they present contrasting views on the current state of violent crime in the country. Trump has been claiming that violent crime has seen a significant increase since 2020, while Harris argues that it has actually decreased to a near 50-year low. Both candidates are relying on different federal statistics to support their claims, with Trump citing a Justice Department survey and Harris referring to FBI data on crimes reported by police departments.
According to crime researchers interviewed by CBS News, the FBI data that Harris is using is considered to be more reliable, and it does indeed suggest that violent crime is at or near a 50-year low. However, both Trump and Harris fail to consider the impact of COVID-19 when comparing current crime rates to those of 2020. The pandemic has had a significant effect on crime rates, and this should be taken into account when analyzing the data.
Trump’s claim that crime has “skyrocketed” is based on a federal survey called the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which estimates national crime rates by asking people whether they have experienced a crime in the last six months. The latest NCVS data shows that the rate of violent crime offenses, excluding homicide, was about 37% higher in 2023 compared to 2020. While this survey can capture some instances of crimes that go unreported to the police, it does have limitations and a margin of error. Crime data analysts caution against cherry-picking favorable data points and emphasize the importance of considering overall trends.
On the other hand, experts commonly rely on the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report to track crimes reported to police by law enforcement agencies. According to the FBI data, the rate of violent crimes was around 6% lower in 2023 compared to 2020. Harris’ claim that violent crime is at or near a 50-year low is supported by this analysis, although it’s important to note that not all violent crimes are reported to the police.
Research also shows that violent crime rates have been declining since the 1990s, and while there have been discrepancies in recent years between crime surveys and reported crime rates, the long-term trends are clear. Both the NCVS and FBI data indicate that the nation’s violent crime rate is much lower than it was in the 1990s, and there is no evidence to suggest that violent crime rates are currently “soaring.”
It’s crucial for voters to consider the larger context when evaluating claims about crime rates from political candidates. The impact of external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and societal disruptions should be taken into consideration, and a nuanced understanding of the data is necessary to make informed decisions.
